If you’ve been on our planet during the last month, you know that the U.S. economy—for a variety of reasons, most notably the credit crisis and its domino effect—is currently in bad shape. From Oct. 9, 2007 to Oct. 10, 2008, the three most common U.S. stock indexes—the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ—each had declined about 40 percent. The U.S. economy has lost 605,000 jobs since January, shedding 84,000 in August alone. U.S. unemployment now stands at 6.1 percent, a five-year high, and some economists project the unemployment rate to continue to rise through the spring of 2009, reaching 7.0 percent or more.
From Wall St. to Main St.
If you’ve grown numb to the numbers, perhaps the headlines of recent corporate casualties, including AIG, Lehman Brothers, Wachovia and Washington Mutual, have made an impression on you. I do business with two of those firms, and I keep checking online news sources to see who now owns them! You might know someone, as I do, who worked for one of those firms for many years and has lost their job.
Ah, you might say, “They’re all financial services firms and of the Wall Street ilk, so their troubles don’t really affect me. All I care about is Main Street, where I do my business.” Well, the evident demise of the economy—including Main Street—hit home the other night when my wife sadly informed me that her favorite women’s clothing store is going out of business. (Where will I go now to buy gifts for her?) Many other retailers are in trouble, and the National Retail Federation predicts holiday sales from November through January will rise just 2.2 percent. Looking back on it, the news in July that national restaurant chain Bennigan’s and Steak & Ale had gone bankrupt and that Starbucks was closing 600 stores now seem like they were a shot across the bow of our economic ship.
The truth is that Wall Street and Main Street are inextricably connected. In fact, from an even greater macro perspective, the U.S. and world economies are inextricably connected. Clearly, when the U.S. sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.
The Psychology of a Downturn
As one’s attitude goes, so goes one’s day. People have been taking in the dismal economic news, processing and internalizing it. Just as there was a significant psychological element to the Great Depression, because of the almost instantaneous dissemination of information today, there is arguably a greater psychological component to the present economic downturn.
Consumer confidence indexes are used to gauge how people are feeling about the future, from an economic perspective. The Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household Index dropped 32 points in October 2008, the largest single-month drop since the index’s establishment in 2002. The index fell from 69.2 in the previous month to 37. This most recent monthly survey of 1,000 U.S. adults found that 27 percent believe their local economy will be weaker six months from October (compared to 13 percent the prior month) and 69 percent felt less comfortable making a major purchase than they were six months ago (up from 55 percent in September).
Of course, as consumers spend less, companies make less and that can impact hiring and retention of staff, as well as curtail investment, which in turn leads to less consumer spending, which leads to… It’s obviously a vicious downward spiral.
In my next post, I plan to write about how certain nonprofit organizations and for-profit companies are dealing with these economic realities.
Ken